Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

In this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model. The non-stationary model means that the parameter of location of the GEV distribution is formulated as linear and quadratic functions of time to detect temporal trends in the maximum rainfall. Future behavior refers to the return level and the return period of the extreme rainfall. The 10, 20, 50 and 100-years return levels and their 95% confidence intervals of the return levels stationary models are provided. The return period is calculated based on the record-high (ranked 1st) extreme rainfall brought by the top 10 typhoons for each station in Taiwan. The estimates show that non-stationary model with increasing trend is suitable for the Kaohsiung, Hengchun, Taitung and Dawu stations. The Kaohsing and Hengchun stations have greater trends than the other two stations, showing that the positive trend extreme rainfall in the southern region is greater than in the eastern region of Taiwan. In addition, the Keelung, Anbu, Zhuzihu, Tamsui, Yilan, Taipei, Hsinchu, Taichung, Alishan, Yushan and Tainan stations are fitted well with the Gumbel distribution, while the Sun Moon Lake, Hualien and Chenggong stations are fitted well with the GEV distribution

Sensitivity of Mission Energy Consumption to Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion Design Assumptions on the N3-X Hybrid Wing Body Aircraft

In a previous study by the authors it was shown that the N3-X, a 300 passenger hybrid wing body (HWB) aircraft with a turboelectric distributed propulsion (TeDP) system, was able to meet the NASA Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) project goal for N+3 generation aircraft of at least a 60% reduction in total energy consumption as compared to the best in class current generation aircraft. This previous study combined technology assumptions that represented the highest anticipated values that could be matured to technology readiness level (TRL) 4-6 by 2030. This paper presents the results of a sensitivity analysis of the total mission energy consumption to reductions in each key technology assumption. Of the parameters examined, the mission total energy consumption was most sensitive to changes to total pressure loss in the propulsor inlet. The baseline inlet internal pressure loss is assumed to be an optimistic 0.5%. An inlet pressure loss of 3% increases the total energy consumption 9%. However changes to reduce inlet pressure loss can result in additional distortion to the fan which can reduce fan efficiency or vice versa. It is very important that the inlet and fan be analyzed and optimized as a single unit. The turboshaft hot section is assumed to be made of ceramic matrix composite (CMC) with a 3000 F maximum material temperature. Reducing the maximum material temperature to 2700 F increases the mission energy consumption by only 1.5%. Thus achieving a 3000 F temperature in CMCs is important but not central to achieving the energy consumption objective of the N3-X/TeDP. A key parameter in the efficiency of superconducting motors and generators is the size of the superconducting filaments in the stator. The size of the superconducting filaments in the baseline model is assumed to be 10 microns. A 40 micron filament, which represents current technology, results in a 200% increase in AC losses in the motor and generator stators. This analysis shows that for a system with 40 micron filaments the higher stator losses plus the added weight and power of larger cryocoolers results in a 4% increase in mission energy consumption. If liquid hydrogen is used to cool the superconductors the 40 micron fibers results in a 200% increase in hydrogen required for cooling. Each pound of hydrogen used as fuel displaces 3 pounds of jet fuel. For the N3-X on the reference mission the additional hydrogen due to the increase stator losses reduces the total fuel weight 10%. The lighter fuel load and attendant vehicle resizing reduces the total energy consumption more than the higher stator losses increase it. As a result with hydrogen cooling there is a slight reduction in mission energy consumption with increasing stator losses. This counter intuitive result highlights the need to consider the full system impact of changes rather than just at the component or subsystem level

Assessment of Five Chilling Tolerance Traits and GWAS Mapping in Rice Using the USDA Mini-Core Collection

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is often exposed to cool temperatures during spring planting in temperate climates. A better understanding of genetic pathways regulating chilling tolerance will enable breeders to develop varieties with improved tolerance during germination and young seedling stages. To dissect chilling tolerance, five assays were developed; one assay for the germination stage, one assay for the germination and seedling stage, and three for the seedling stage. Based on these assays, five chilling tolerance indices were calculated and assessed using 202 O. sativa accessions from the Rice Mini-Core (RMC) collection. Significant differences between RMC accessions made the five indices suitable for genome-wide association study (GWAS) based quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping. For young seedling stage indices, japonica and indica subspecies clustered into chilling tolerant and chilling sensitive accessions, respectively, while both subspecies had similar low temperature germinability distributions. Indica subspecies were shown to have chilling acclimation potential. GWAS mapping uncovered 48 QTL at 39 chromosome regions distributed across all 12 rice chromosomes. Interestingly, there was no overlap between the germination and seedling stage QTL. Also, 18 QTL and 32 QTL were in regions discovered in previously reported bi-parental and GWAS based QTL mapping studies, respectively. Two novel low temperature seedling survivability (LTSS)–QTL, qLTSS3-4 and qLTSS4-1, were not in a previously reported QTL region. QTL with strong effect alleles identified in this study will be useful for marker assisted breeding efforts to improve chilling tolerance in rice cultivars and enhance gene discovery for chilling tolerance

Cooperative Data and Computation Partitioning for Decentralized Architectures.

Scalability of future wide-issue processor designs is severely hampered by the use of centralized resources such as register files, memories and interconnect networks. While the use of centralized resources eases both hardware design and compiler code generation efforts, they can become performance bottlenecks as access latencies increase with larger designs. The natural solution to this problem is to adapt the architecture to use smaller, decentralized resources. Decentralized architectures use smaller, faster components and exploit distributed instruction-level parallelism across the resources. A multicluster architecture is an example of such a decentralized processor, where subsets of smaller register files, functional units, and memories are grouped together in a tightly coupled unit, forming a cluster. These clusters can then be replicated and connected together to form a scalable, high-performance architecture. The main difficulty with decentralized architectures resides in compiler code generation. In a centralized Very Long Instruction Word (VLIW) processor, the compiler must statically schedule each operation to both a functional unit and a time slot for execution. In contrast, for a decentralized multicluster VLIW, the compiler must consider the additional effects of cluster assignment, recognizing that communication between clusters will result in a delay penalty. In addition, if the multicluster processor also has partitioned data memories, the compiler has the additional task of assigning data objects to their respective memories. Each decision, of cluster, functional unit, memory, and time slot, are highly interrelated and can have dramatic effects on the best choice for every other decision. This dissertation addresses the issues of extracting and exploiting inherent parallelism across decentralized resources through compiler analysis and code generation techniques. First, a static analysis technique to partition data objects is presented, which maps data objects to decentralized scratchpad memories. Second, an alternative profile-guided technique for memory partitioning is presented which can effectively map data access operations onto distributed caches. Finally, a detailed, resource-aware partitioning algorithm is presented which can effectively split computation operations of an application across a set of processing elements. These partitioners work in tandem to create a high-performance partition assignment of both memory and computation operations for decentralized multicluster or multicore processors.Ph.D.Computer Science & EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57649/2/mchu_1.pd

Logistics Reduction and Repurposing Technology for Long Duration Space Missions

One of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) projects is the Logistics Reduction and Repurposing (LRR) project, which has the goal of reducing logistics resupply items through direct and indirect means. Various technologies under development in the project will reduce the launch mass of consumables and their packaging, enable reuse and repurposing of items and make logistics tracking more efficient. Repurposing also reduces the trash burden onboard spacecraft and indirectly reduces launch mass by replacing some items on the manifest. Examples include reuse of trash as radiation shielding or propellant. This paper provides the status of the LRR technologies in their third year of development under AES. Advanced clothing systems (ACS) are being developed to enable clothing to be worn longer, directly reducing launch mass. ACS has completed a ground exercise clothing study in preparation for an International Space Station (ISS) technology demonstration in 2014. Development of launch packaging containers and other items that can be repurposed on-orbit as part of habitation outfitting has resulted in a logistics-to-living (L2L) concept. L2L has fabricated and evaluated several multi-purpose cargo transfer bags (MCTBs) for potential reuse on orbit. Autonomous logistics management (ALM) is using radio frequency identification (RFID) to track items and thus reduce crew requirements for logistics functions. An RFID dense reader prototype is under construction and plans for integrated testing are being made. Development of a heat melt compactor (HMC) second generation unit for processing trash into compact and stable tiles is nearing completion. The HMC prototype compaction chamber has been completed and system development testing is underway. Research has been conducted on the conversion of trash-to-gas (TtG) for high levels of volume reduction and for use in propulsion systems. A steam reformation system was selected for further system definition of the TtG technology. And benefits analysis of all LRR technologies have been updated with the latest test and analysis results

Small UAV Research and Evolution in Long Endurance Electric Powered Vehicles

This paper describes recent research into the advancement of small, electric powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capabilities. Specifically, topics include the improvements made in battery technology, design methodologies, avionics architectures and algorithms, materials and structural concepts, propulsion system performance prediction, and others. The results of prototype vehicle designs and flight tests are discussed in the context of their usefulness in defining and validating progress in the various technology areas. Further areas of research need are also identified. These include the need for more robust operating regimes (wind, gust, etc.), and continued improvement in payload fraction vs. endurance

Prototype effective-one-body model for nonprecessing spinning inspiral-merger-ringdown waveforms

We first use five non-spinning and two mildly spinning (chi_i \simeq -0.44, +0.44) numerical-relativity waveforms of black-hole binaries and calibrate an effective-one-body (EOB) model for non-precessing spinning binaries, notably its dynamics and the dominant (2,2) gravitational-wave mode. Then, we combine the above results with recent outcomes of small-mass-ratio simulations produced by the Teukolsky equation and build a prototype EOB model for detection purposes, which is capable of generating inspiral-merger-ringdown waveforms for non-precessing spinning black-hole binaries with any mass ratio and individual black-hole spins -1 \leq chi_i \lesssim 0.7. We compare the prototype EOB model to two equal-mass highly spinning numerical-relativity waveforms of black holes with spins chi_i = -0.95, +0.97, which were not available at the time the EOB model was calibrated. In the case of Advanced LIGO we find that the mismatch between prototype-EOB and numerical-relativity waveforms is always smaller than 0.003 for total mass 20-200 M_\odot, the mismatch being computed by maximizing only over the initial phase and time. To successfully generate merger waveforms for individual black-hole spins chi_i \gtrsim 0.7, the prototype-EOB model needs to be improved by (i) better modeling the plunge dynamics and (ii) including higher-order PN spin terms in the gravitational-wave modes and radiation-reaction force.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures. Minor changes to match version accepted for publication in PR

Defining the Efficacy of Aortic Root Enlargement Procedures: A Comparative Analysis of Surgical Techniques

Background: Aortic root enlargement (ARE) procedures are believed to allow implantation of larger valve prostheses; however, little evidence exists to support the specific efficacy of various techniques. Methods: Using a cadaveric model, 20 adult (72.4 +/- 15.3 years) hearts were stratified into 4 groups based on annular diameter: \u3c20 mm, 20-22 mm, 22-24 mm, and \u3e24 mm. Each heart underwent an aortic valve replacement following a Nicks, Manougian, aortoventriculoplasty and modified Bentall procedure, with appropriate reversals between procedures. Results: All 4 groups experienced similar increases in annular diameter (P = 0.43) and prosthesis size implanted (P = 0.51) with each enlargement technique. The Nicks, Manougian, modified Bentall and aortoventriculoplasty procedures enlarged the annulus by 0.43 +/- 0.45 mm, 3.63 +/- 0.95 mm, 0.78 +/- 0.65 mm, and 6.08 +/- 1.19 mm, respectively (P \u3c 0.001). No significant change in prosthesis size was observed after the Nicks procedure (P = not significant). Increases of 1.3 +/- 0.5, 1.3 +/- 0.5, and 2.7 +/- 0.6 prosthesis sizes were achieved with the Manougian, modified Bentall and aortoventriculoplasty techniques respectively (P \u3c 0.001). Conclusions: ARE procedures appear equally efficacious in both small and larger aortic roots. Although all 4 ARE techniques increased the annular diameter, only the Manougian, modified Bentall and aortoventriculoplasty procedures allowed for the implantation of a larger prosthetic valve. The Nicks procedure, which is likely the most commonly performed ARE, does not allow for the implantation of a larger prosthesis. Surgeon preference and patient factors may help in selecting the most appropriate ARE technique, as the modified Bentall and Manougian procedures achieved similar increases in valve size

How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

This paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse gas, and examines how these gases affect the frequency and strength of El Niño on the global economy. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately, and that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with even stronger El Nino or La Nina effects in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated